Some of those business decisions we make every day as email marketers are harder to gauge than others. Are our open rates good enough? Shall we send this fifth message this week? Should I send CTOs the same message as CFOs? Will our best buyers respond better to 15-off-75 or 10-off-50? All these are tough calls that we base on judgment, best practices and any benchmarks we can glean from vendors.

One of the trickiest is making the case for dropping non-responders from our files. Keeping them on is not expensive and seems to do no harm to active subscribers. It used to be a good idea to keep complaint rates down by flooding the denominator with non-responders—and most marketers felt that since these subscribers didn’t open or click, they wouldn’t complain either.

Not so any longer. It’s risky to keep non-responders on the file. First, there are a lot more of them than ever before. We see clients with anywhere from 25% to 65% of their file now “dead.” Second, it is a deliverability risk. Our client data shows these non-responders often do complain and there is a risk that very old records can become spam traps, significantly damaging your sender reputation.. Third, their strong numbers depress your response rates and may disguise more important trends among active buyers.

Our good client Andrew Magpantay, senior product manager at Reunion.com, coined a great expression when he spoke at our client seminar in Los Angeles last week. He said that reconnecting with non-responders on the file is like gathering up the “loose change.” Sure, there is some value there, and if you have a lot of it lying around it adds up to real dollars, but the risks are real, as well.

In addition to the deliverability hit, typically, there is no revenue gain from continuing to email folks who are no longer interested in your messages or who have been bored by them for so long it would take a miracle to get them to finally open another. Yet, we marketers are ever hopeful. We truly do believe that even though the subscriber has been ignoring our messages for a year, that tomorrow just might be the day! The reality is that very few, if any, will actually come around after such a long time.

At the same time, there is always some sort of “tail” for response from long inactive subscribers. Sometimes it’s enough loose change that it adds up! One of our clients, a retailer, did the analysis and found that buyers who were lapsed 15+ months actually purchased a half million dollars worth of product in the past year. (There are also about 5 million of them!) Another client’s “dead file”—non-responsive for 13+ months after receiving bi-monthly (2x a month) email messages for a year—earned a 2% purchase rate. That was small compared to the 15% purchase rate of other subscribers, but still meaningful. That’s real revenue and no one wants to leave revenue on the table. Andrew’s Reunion.com file of non-responders definitely earned some small response. But not a lot and nowhere near the response rates of the rest of the file.

The key is to make sure that you are doing the analysis and balancing the deliverability and cost risks. Maybe you can’t bear (or afford) to abandon all of the loose change. Consider just picking up the highest value segments, the ”quarters” perhaps, and leave the rest on the ground by cutting the records off after a win-back campaign. Try to re-engage through other channels—when they log into the website or call customer service, through your sales team or via postal mail. Match your non-responders to an email change of address service (full disclosure: Return Path runs the largest)—many subscribers may regularly check an alternate address. Be sure to welcome these returning subscribers back with a custom campaign.

The ISPs, especially MSN/Hotmail and Gmail, are getting smarter about using consumer “votes” for separating senders whose mail is welcome from those who keep mailing long after the subscriber has tuned the program out. So it no longer is always helpful to keep a large denominator of subscribers who are not responding (or complaining) to keep your complaint rate down.

Better, be sure to engage with subscribers before they become too far lost to you. At least every quarter develop a win-back campaign or an invite to visit the preference center and re-engage. This is the only way to prevent having the loose change become significant enough to pain you.

—Stephanie Miller of Return Path

We asked the Voices of Email to look into their crystal balls and foretell what 2008 had in store for the email marketing industry. Here are their predictions:

Stephanie Miller of Return Path:
#1 - Email Marketers, if you want to keep your job, segment your file. I was hoping that last year would be the year that we’d see more targeted, tailored, relevant campaigns and less batch and blast. Not sure that happened, although I was half right in that we certainly saw MORE segmentation and targeting than in 2006.

Why will email marketers lose their job if they don’t do it now? Because the email channel is more expensive than ever, and there are too many risks to brand and customer satisfaction and loyalty. Unhappy email subscribers—all that dead wood on your file—is not just a missed opportunity, it’s a liability. Engaging with those folks is going to take more time and effort in creative and list hygiene and segmentation than ever before. To get those budgets, the email marketer has to prove the channel. To prove the channel, the email messages have to be a lot more relevant. To be relevant, they must be segmented. Thankfully, the technology and best practices are already in place and proven. We just need to set our minds to it.

#2 - The Data Capture form goes multichannel. We’ll see more and more email marketers open up their data capture form to include permission to contact via SMS and mobile marketing. Building up the database with these contact touch points will be increasingly important as more marketers start to test the efficacy of those channels.

#3 - Transactions will become touchpoints sometimes too hot to handle. More email marketers are going to push the envelope on turning transactional messages into marketing opportunities. The receivers and FTC will get stricter on standards, potentially causing trouble for some senders. With the need to dynamically create, message and track these messages, ESPs will aggressively go after the transactional email market to build their base and capture higher share of wallet.

Chip House of ExactTarget: Increasing focus on subscriber engagement. When emphasizing the importance of list hygiene, David Daniels of Jupiter Research often compares mailing the portion of your list that hasn’t opened or clicked on your emails in several months to “flying an advertisement over a ghost town.” Many marketers are realizing the benefits to their success potential via email by truly understanding which segments of their list are responding, and which aren’t. The non-responsive segments drag down your deliverability and ROI, and waste your time. This is something that I like to call the “ignore rate.” Marketers that ignore the needs of their subscribers, send irrelevant communications, or make other blunders leading to dissatisfied subscribers, drive a higher ignore rate.

Most sophisticated email marketers now closely track their open and click rates, and more are even tracking subscriber spam complaints by ISP. However, it is often what you don’t see that can be most harmful to your deliverability and campaign ROI. More marketers are beginning to see the benefits of closely analyzing the portion of their customer base that IS NOT paying attention. By doing so they can better reactivate them, opt them in again, or discard them—all to the benefit of their response rates and ROI.

2008 is about flying hundreds of planes, towing just the right message, over hundreds of small cities.

Amy Bills of Bulldog Solutions: I think we will see some shaking out in the use of social media for lead generation. Right now, a lot of companies are really struggling to understand what works and what can be integrated into their existing strategies. Is a blog, a podcast, RSS, an online community, a presence on Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, etc. going to be worth the effort and resources? How can you even measure their effect on your objectives? And of course, what works for one company is not going to be the same formula for another. Some have the impulse to try everything. Others want to bury their heads in the sand and deny the landscape is changing at all. A third group is experimenting and trying to be smart about making good choices, thinking about what their prospects will respond to and how to make social media enhance what they are already doing.

After Paul Dunay joined Bulldog in November for a webinar on making sense of social media for BtoB marketing, he made a comment that really stuck with me. “[The question isn’t] if social media is right for your company, but which social media is right for your company. And at this point in time and state of your company, you need to determine which social media is right for your company for next year. A year from now, the picture may look very different. And the answer to which social media is right for your company will be different for each company. My advice is look into next year with an eye toward experimenting with a few tactics to begin to get yourself and your team up to speed.”

So, I predict that more marketers will ease into that third group, and start to get smarter about social media. And by “smarter” I mean more creative and experienced about how to make tactics work and measure their results, and brave enough to admit when a particular tactic might not work.

Tricia Robinson of StrongMail Systems: The email space gets larger and faster daily. With this growth comes change, and I predict we’ll experience much change in 2008.

Automation Becomes The New Buzzword. We’ve lived through closing-the-loop, 1to1 digi-dialogues, and deliverability. Look for campaign automation to catch-on in 2008. We’re seeing more clients rapidly move in this direction. Those that already have are realizing the time/cost benefits of auto-generated programs.

The Final Sunset for the Old Homegrowns. The replacement of the original homegrown system has been a trend since 2006. However, this year we’ll see the last of the first homegrown systems built by Web 1.0 companies and those that thought “email is easy, we’ll make our own.” Some organizations will always custom-build, but most have done it on top of something more sophisticated than generic MTAs.

All Outbound Customer Email Includes Marketing. Even if it’s the inclusion of a logo, all outbound customer email (transactional, customer service, promotional, etc.) will include a touch of marketing. According to MarketingSherpa in mid-2007, 90% of email marketers planned to overhaul their transactional email in the next 12 months. Not sure if they will meet their own deadline by June, but look for an improvement in the look of all outbound email. I’m not crazy enough to predict the death of the text email, but maybe next year.

Still More Acquisitions. 2004-2006 were large vendor consolidation years in our space. I argue that 2007 was the year of the IPO. Now with more cash and CNBC viewers to consider, look for Constant Contact and ExactTarget to make purchases that round out their offerings or extend their reach into new markets.

Unlike many, I like change. It’s good to shake things up as long as the goal is always towards improvement. Happy New Year!

Chad White of the eec: 2008 will be the year that retailers and other B2C marketers increase the transparency of their email programs and relinquish more control to subscribers. In 2007 we saw more retailers allow potential subscribers to view a sample email before signing up. More also offered emails on different topics or allowed some level of content preference selection—which is key to elevating relevancy. Consumers are getting very used to having more control over how they’re marketed to, and email will be forced to fall in line over time. On the upside, giving consumers more control over content and frequency, and being more upfront about those aspects of their email programs, should generate more lifetime value from subscribers. Although eventually we’ll see this kind of control move to the front end, during 2008 we’ll start to see it more and more on the tail end of the relationship when subscribers are fed up and trying to opt out. Rather than lose subscribers, more marketers will give up control over frequency and other elements to boost retention.

During 2008 we’ll also see retailers pay more attention to content—product reviews, videos of product demonstrations and fashion shows, blogs, articles, podcasts, etc.—and do a better job of leveraging it in their email channels.

When reviewing subscriber reply mail to email newsletters, what action is recommended for responses that aren’t specifically unsubscribes, like various automatic bouncebacks, account no longer exists, “I have left the company”, etc. Heard discussion that one should just unsubscribe these people since they are unable to receive the newsletter and why send to them if they won’t receive, however I would think that skews the stats a bit, as these people aren’t actually requesting to be unsubscribed. Curious as to what the EEC audience considers best practice in these cases. —Meaghan Peters, UnitedHealthcare

The Voices of Email had this advice:

Stephanie Miller: This sounds like a bounce management issue. Proper bounce management should be handled by your IT team or your ESP—and be sure you understand what your processes are. Poor processes can result in deliverability failure for all your messages.

There are two kinds of bounces—hard and soft. Hard bounces are “user not found” errors and should be immediately taken off your file. Soft bounces include the types of messages you describe above, and depending on your mailing frequency, you can remove these records after a certain number of bounces. If you mail weekly, you might try three more times, then consider the account dead and remove the record. If you mail monthly, one more mailing is probably appropriate. This approach will quickly remove any accounts like “I no longer work here,” which you don’t want on your file anyway.

Jeanniey Mullen: This is a tough one, especially as you are in the healthcare market. Many pharmaceutical companies and healthcare organizations have a policy that does not allow them to review or respond to replies from an email as it may put them in a legally challenging situation. If you do not need to worry about the legal issues, the next thing to consider is the amount of replies you receive. If your list is small, it is worth reading through the replies and makings edits to manually unsub people who have left their jobs or have email verification services turned on. This process becomes very time consuming if your list get larger. In this case, some companies have built “bots” to help pull these types of emails out, but many just let them go and have rules set up to move them to a “bounced” status after three unsuccessful mailings.

Have some good advice that we missed? Please add a comment and take part in the conversation.

Have a question for the Voices of Email? Email Chad your question at chad@emailexperience.org and we’ll REPLY TO ALL by posting the answers so everyone can benefit.

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Based on what I saw at the ClickZ Specifics: Email Marketing conference yesterday, deliverability remains the hot topic. They had a packed session dedicated to the topic and it also came up during the closing 5 Experts/5 Minutes session, where five experts were given 60 seconds each to answer a question from the audience. Here is some of the wisdom that I jotted down:

Regarding first steps…
Stefan Pollard of EmailLabs said to start by knowing your metrics—your delivery rate, bounce management, spam complaints, etc. You can make improvements if you don’t know where your program stands currently.

Deidre Baird of Pivotal Veracity said that you should get on ISPs’ whitelists (which is free) and take advantage of spam compliant feedback loops.

Regarding list rental/buying…
Baird also said to avoid spamtraps by not buying lists and harvesting addresses from the web. Only use opt ins, she said.

Jordan Ayan of SubscriberMail said flatly, “Don’t ever buy a list.”

Rebecca Lieb of ClickZ said that they were very close to advising readers to never rent or buy lists, but that they hadn’t quite reached that point yet.

Regarding offline sign-ups with incentives…
If you’re offering incentives in order to collect email addresses offline, be sure to “deliver the incentive to the email address,” said Austin Bliss of FreshAddress. The customer is more likely to give you their real address and to write legibly if the incentive is being delivered this way.

Lieb told a story of a major apparel retailer that gave in-store customers a 20% off coupon in exchange for their email address. Well, people wrote down bogus addresses in order to get the discount and those addresses lead to the retailer being blacklisted. Ouch!

Pollard recommended using double opt-in for offline sources of acquisition.

Regarding B2B filtering…
“B2B filtering is more whimsical than B2C,” said Bliss.

Baird said that companies rely much more on spam lists like Spamhaus and SpamCop.

Regarding authentication…
People were universally proponents of authentication (DKIM and Sender ID), which makes it clear that you are who you say you are, thereby fighting spoofing. But they also all said that it currently doesn’t lead to better deliverability, as very few ISPs give authentication serious weigh yet when deciding which emails to filter. However, some of the experts thought this would be given more weight in the future.

Regarding cleaning up old, dirty lists…
Pollard told marketers to look at the date of subscription—the older the date, the more likely you should just cut them. He also advised people to remove role addresses like sales@domain.com.

Al DiGuido of Zustek said you should cut people who haven’t opened an email in the past 6-12 months.

But Ayan said not to assume that your emails are going unread because the subscriber could have images turned off. He said it’s best if you send a series of emails asking if they want to continue receiving email.

—Chad White

Bulldog Solutions hosted a live roundtable on Email Deliverability for BtoB Lead Generation earlier this week. We expected a great turnout for this Webinar—and we weren’t disappointed. More than 50% of registrants made time to attend the hourlong live event—an attendance rate that exceeds nearly every measure for online marketing we track in the Bulldog Index.

Our panel included two familiar EEC names: Stephanie Miller of Return Path, who is the EEC’s vice chair for member initiatives, and Michelle Eichner of Pivotal Veracity, who leads the EEC’s deliverability and rendering roundtable. That group produced the March report on email standards and bounce management that we referred to several times during the webinar. We also had Ryan Rutan, a senior programming analyst at National Instruments, who offered his perspective from an organization that’s confronted many of the issues marketers are facing. You can view a recording of the roundtable here.

Prior to the webinar we solicited questions from our registrants, a practice we typically employ to help us ensure the panel addresses the audience’s biggest pain points. As the EEC’s Jeanniey Mullen pointed out, the questions themselves are fantastic market research.

Here’s one observation I think we can all relate to. The questions showed us that marketers want a magic bullet. This is human nature and not surprising, but when the topic is complex, it’s not always easy to provide. While they’re certainly willing to put in the work on testing and research, and to consider variables such as industry and message, the fact remains we received many questions asking for answers on:
—The best time to send emails
—The most successful subject line
—The best word count for a promotional email
—A definitive answer on whether text or HTML is best

One attendee summed up the panelists’ responses with humor: “Great stuff. Very knowledgeable panel. Bottom line: It depends. Ha ha.”

During the webinar we promised attendees we’d answer some of the questions we didn’t get to address during the live event. We’ll use this blog and Bulldog’s sales and marketing blog, as well as our Marketing Watchdog Journal newsletter, to communicate when we have some Q&A written up for the audience to explore.

—Amy Bills

In his recent article in the New Yorker , Michael Specter discusses the history of spam and some of the technologies that have sprung up to guard against it, as well as new tactics spammers are using to get around it. One uber-mathematic spammer determined there were “600,426,974,379,824,381,952 ways to spell Viagra…” That is a great example of the tenacity of the spam community. They won’t give up, even if they have to increase their spam from billions to trillions a day to get just a few responses. The word that comes to mind for me is sustainability. How does a legitimate email marketer survive and sustain response rates when other forces are conspiring to de-legitimize email?

The truth is there are several ways to define your email campaign such that it is viewed differently than the filth.

Sustainability in an environmental sense hits me every day as I get my coffee at a local coffee shop. I try to bring my own cup rather than rely on another tree-diminishing, chlorine-whitened paper cup. Java Jacks, the local shop just around the corner from my house, posted a sign that says something like “Thanks for using your own cup – just our tiny shop used over 100,000 paper cups last year…help us reverse that trend.” That shop has to be just a tiny fraction of the paper cups used by Starbucks in a year. My point is that it took that sign at Java Jacks for me to really think about the impact even my few cups a week could have over a lifetime. Even my tree-hugging tendencies had been numbed by the simple ease and anonymity of choosing a paper cup.

Spammers have created that same numbness with much of the populace with email. Legitimate marketers have the opportunity (and I argue responsibility) to reverse rather than add to the trend and impression that all email is spam. Marketers that continue to slam away at inboxes with little analysis of what is happening at the other end risk looking more like a spammer than a sustainable business.

Here are a few ways to do so:

• Spammers rely on volume to get their sale. Legitimate marketers need to rely on permission and relevance. Via customer-selected opt-in preferences, behavioral observance and data analysis, marketers can achieve a solid ROI independent of volume of email sent.

• Purge old and inactive names. Spammers mail everyone. A marketer mails only those that are likely to respond. Mailing deeper cheapens your brand and sullies your reputation.

• Authenticate your email. Where spam = fraud, legitimate mail builds on the brand your company has built offline. Don’t let fraudulent phishing scams destroy customer perception of your email. By authenticating with SPF, Sender ID and DKIM, you’ll decrease the chance your customers will get ripped off by the latest scam pretending to be you.

One thing I’ve learned in life is that your reputation follows you. Once tarnished, it is difficult to repair. United Airlines is one business that has destroyed what was once a great reputation (yes, at one time it was wonderful to fly with them).

USA Today recently ran an article about the decline in service quality in the airline industry. The article recounts story after story of small missteps that have built into a major reputation crisis for the industry. I was interviewed for the article:

“There were days in the not-too-distant past when United’s service was fantastic, especially if you were an elite flier,” says Jordan Ayan, CEO of a Chicago high-tech firm.

A million-mile United flier, he used to buy Christmas gifts for his favorite United agents at Chicago O’Hare. “Boy, have times changed.”

The basics are simple: keep your list clean, don’t pre-check opt-in boxes, honor unsubscribes, don’t email too often, remove bounces and comply with CAN-SPAM. It’s like anything that impacts reputation in a relationship, put yourself on the other side, and if a practice is distasteful to you, don’t do it. If United’s executives had done this, we might all have cleaner planes, nicer agents, on-time flights and a better time traveling.

—Jordan Ayan